Retail Capacity Study for Shrewsbury

Executive Summary

Prepared by: WHITE YOUNG GREEN PLANNING

On behalf of Shrewsbury & Atcham Borough Council

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1. Scope of the Study

White Young Green were commissioned by Shrewsbury & Atcham Borough Council in March 2003, to undertake a retail capacity study of Shrewsbury Town Centre providing a detailed evaluation of how the centre can evolve through to 2011.

The aim of the study was to provide important information that would underpin the local plan strategy adopted for future retail and leisure development within Shrewsbury and how it can best respond to increasing competition from other centres.

2. The Shopping Hierarchy

The Borough of Shrewsbury and Atcham lies at the heart of the county of Shropshire. Shrewsbury Town Centre is the main retail area in the district and acts as sub-regional centre for comparison and convenience shopping. However, competing sub-regional centres such as Chester and Telford and to some extent Wolverhampton, influence the current shopping hierarchy, within which Shrewsbury Town Centre operates. In addition, the major regional centre of Birmingham has some effect on current shopping patterns within Shrewsbury’s hierarchy.

The strength of competing centres, particularly to the north and east, limit the catchment area and market share of Shrewsbury. However, the survey evidence demonstrates that centres such as Telford have a limited impact on shopping patterns locally with Shrewsbury proving an important destination for food and non-food shopping as well as leisure and entertainment facilities - particularly for residents within the Borough.

3. Shrewsbury’s Current Competitive Position

It is evident from Experian’s Retail Centre Ranking report, which provides a national ranking system based on a town centre vitality score, that Shrewsbury has improved its position between 2001 and 2002 by seven places in the ranking of centres. Indeed, nationally, Shrewsbury is ranked 64^th out of 250 centres examined by Experian. This places Shrewsbury in the top 26% of all of the UK’s important retail centres which is a significant achievement. However, there is clearly scope to further improve its position regionally and nationally.

Source: Experian: Retail Centre Ranking (2002)

4. Shrewsbury Town Centre Appraisal

As a county town, Shrewsbury town centre is able to sustain a good diversity of uses to complement the retail function. The town centre has a total of 100,430 sq. m floorspace in 594 units of which 91,890 sq m is occupied by convenience (food grocery), comparison (non-food) and service (banks, etc). This compares favourably with Shrewsbury’s main competitors as outlined below.

Source: Experian Goad (figures based on most recent surveys of each of the centres identified)

Notes: ¹ Total floorspace relates to convenience, comparison and service floorspace only, and excludes miscellaneous floorspace, vacancies and other uses

However, the convenience (food grocery) sector in the town centre is under represented, with the proportion of convenience units and floorspace significantly below the national average. Indeed, the town centre contains only a small foodstore (Somerfield, Riverside Shopping Centre) although the Marks and Spencer store on Castle Street does contains a food hall.

The proportion of comparison (non-food) units and floorspace is significantly above the national average. In this respect, it is not unusual for higher order centres (i.e. regional and sub-regional centres) such as Shrewsbury to be biased towards comparison goods retailing.

Source: Experian Goad, December 2002

Vacancy rates are comparable to the national average with 10% of the total number of units vacant, compared with the national average of 11%. In comparison to vacancy levels in competing centres, Shrewsbury contains less vacant units than Oswestry, Wolverhampton and Wrexham. However, the proportion of vacant units is higher than in Chester and Telford.

Source: Experian Goad. Based on most recent surveys of the town centres.

Shrewsbury Town Centre currently has a relatively low representation of high street multiples with 213 multiple retailers represented, occupying 36% of the total number of units in the centre. For a centre of sub-regional importance this is slightly surprising although the limitations of existing units and the relative strength of the independent sector would explain the percentage achieved.

In summary, from the detailed research undertaken outlined in the main report, it is evident that Shrewsbury Town Centre is currently showing strong signs of vitality and viability. The centre benefits from a strong loyal catchment that in turn have access to a diverse range of facilities. Retailer confidence in Shrewsbury is good although it is recognised by traders that limited footfall in secondary areas and a general lack of promotion limits their overall trading performance.

The centre benefits from a high quality natural and built environment which, despite being one of Shrewsbury’s unique selling points, is not promoted as much as it should be. By building on its key assets Shrewsbury has the potential to create a shopping experience that is comparable to Chester.

Current weaknesses within the centre primarily relate to congestion in key shopping streets within the town centre, a lack of redevelopment opportunities to accommodate national multiple retailers seeking larger units and an under representation of convenience (food grocery facilities).

5. Market Research

A key element of this study was to obtain a detailed understanding of Shrewsbury’s potential catchment and the shopping patterns that currently exist within it. This was achieved by three strands of original market research as follows:

• A Household Telephone Survey - which interviewed 1,000 households within the defined catchment;
• A Town Centre Shopper Survey - which interviewed 300 shoppers within the centre of Shrewsbury over three days including a Saturday; and
• A Town Centre Traders Survey - that was distributed to over 380 Shrewsbury Town Centre premises.

Summaries of the results are highlighted within the main report with detailed results provided in the technical appendices.

6. Shrewsbury Town Centre’s Catchment

From White Young Green’s knowledge of competing centres and the likely sphere of influence of the retail facilities currently found within Shrewsbury Town Centre, it is assumed that Shrewsbury is likely to attract the majority of its shoppers from within a 20-minute off-peak drive time of the town centre.

However, in order to ensure that the study provides an accurate profile of Shrewsbury’s catchment, its definition has been purposely ‘stretched’ to take into consideration competing centres and their current retail offer. Although it is anticipated that Shrewsbury will draw trade from the area around Oswestry, this has been excluded from the defined catchment as Oswestry Borough Council have recently completed their own Retail Capacity Study and the findings of this have been incorporated within this study.

The defined catchment area has been broken down into six postal code zones at a four digit level. This zoning by post code has enabled White Young green to identify shopping patterns from different areas of the Borough and wider area.

The 1991 Census of Population estimates that there are currently over 179,000 people within the defined catchment for this study. Using MapInfo TargetPro’s national database, it is anticipated that by 2011, the catchment will have grown by 4.8% to over 187,700.

7. Retail Expenditure - Spending Potential within the Catchment

Unit for Retail Planning (URPI) expenditure growth rates have been applied to White Young Green’s population projection model, which has been based on MapInfo’s population forecasts outlined above. Using this model White Young Green have produced expenditure estimates for the catchment area for 2003, 2006 and 2011, which take into account both retail expenditure growth and population growth.

Source: WYG, 2003

It can be seen from the above table that forecast future growth in retail expenditure will be dominated by spending on non-food goods with only modest increases forecast on food grocery spending.

8. Shrewsbury’s Current Market Share

By analysing the results from the survey it has been possible to understand the likely levels of expenditure that are attracted to retail facilities within Shrewsbury. Unsurprisingly, given the retail offer within the Borough, Shrewsbury is a popular destination for both convenience and comparison shopping retaining approximately 65% of food shopping expenditure and 57% of non-food expenditure within the defined catchment.

Source: NEMS Household Survey and WYG Retail Model, 2003, NEMS Oswestry Household Survey, November 2002

With forecast growth in convenience shopping predicted at only 0.1% per annum it is not surprising to discover that Shrewsbury will only experience an increase of £9.7m in food expenditure between 2003 and 2011. In comparison, the significant increase in expenditure on non-food goods, would suggest that Shrewsbury’s market share will witness an increase of over £101.4m.

9. Future Need for Convenience Goods Floorspace

White Young Green’s analysis of the Borough’s market share of convenience goods expenditure within the defined catchment indicates that in 2003 approximately £174.4m is available to convenience goods stores throughout the Borough. When this is compared to the total turnover generated by existing retail facilities (based on company averages) it is estimated that there is a surplus of convenience expenditure available within the Borough totalling approximately £29.1m.

However, the proposed relocation of Tesco at Harlescott (subject to the Deputy Prime Minister’s decision) and the extension of Sainsbury’s at Meole Brace will generate an additional £16.8m of convenience goods turnover by 2006. Although both of these schemes will absorb a significant proportion of the projected capacity, the residual (£12.3m) is still sufficient to support an additional small foodstore in Shrewsbury. Given the current undersupply of convenience facilities within the town centre, this surplus capacity should be made available to support future opportunities which seek to enhance the role of convenience goods shopping within Shrewsbury Town Centre.

10. Future Need for Comparison Goods Floorspace

The Borough’s current ‘bulky goods’ retail facilities attract approximately 50% (or £81.7m) of the total ‘bulky goods’ expenditure generated within the defined catchment. However, the £81.7m currently being spent on ‘bulky goods’, is not exclusively available to retail warehouse facilities outside the town centre. According to the household survey, certain retail units within Shrewsbury Town Centre retailing electrical, DIY and furniture goods, absorb 37% (or £29.9m) of the £81.7m.

This suggests that £51.8m is spent at existing retail warehouse facilities throughout the Borough. In addition, by drawing upon the results of the Oswestry Retail Capacity Study, it is estimated that a further £2.9m (or 5.5%) is being spent at existing retail warehouse facilities within Shrewsbury. This would provide a total spend at retail warehouses of £54.7m.

By rolling forward this market share (£54.7m) and allowing for increased productivity and special forms of trading, the likely expenditure available for additional retail warehousing floorspace will be £18.5m by 2011.

Source: WYG 2003 at 2000 Prices

By applying an average sales density for retail warehousing to the surplus expenditure, WYG estimate that by the year 2011 there will be a requirement for approximately 10,300 sq. m gross based on the current market share.

In terms of future supply, White Young Green are not aware of any outstanding planning permissions relating to bulky goods retail warehousing within Shrewsbury. Therefore, the Council will need to carefully consider potential suitable locations which will address the likely need highlighted from the above analysis.

From White Young Green’s analysis of the current market share of Shrewsbury Town Centre, it is estimated that the current level of non-food expenditure captured from within the defined catchment is £203.3m. Based on this market share, White Young Green have forecast that by 2011, an additional £47.9m would be available to support new non-food retail facilities within Shrewsbury Town Centre. By applying an average sales density to the surplus expenditure identified, White Young Green estimate that by the year 2011 there will be a requirement for approximately 20,000 sq. m gross of additional non-food floorspace within Shrewsbury Town Centre.

However, it must be noted that this requirement for 20,000 sq m is based on the assumption that Shrewsbury will only maintain its current market share by 2011. Given the opportunity to provide better quality retail facilities, including a new department store and better tourist/visitor facilities, there may be scope to expand Shrewsbury Town Centre’s market share in the future. If this is to be achieved then it is evident that additional floorspace will be required over and above the 20,000 sq m highlighted above.

For example, if Shrewsbury Town Centre was to increase its market share from 42% to 45% within the defined catchment, the requirement for additional non-food floorspace would increase to 28,500 sqm. However, the ability to achieve gains in market share depends upon the overall improvements that can be achieved in the quality of the ‘offer’ compared to facilities in competing centres elsewhere.

Although it will be important to seek qualitative and quantitative gains in Shrewsbury’s retail ‘offer’, any future strengthening of its role must be done on a sensitive basis without damaging existing multiple, or more importantly, specialist independent retailers.

11. Patterns of Leisure Activity in Shrewsbury

By analysing the results from the survey it is clear that Shrewsbury is the most popular destination for all the leisure activities identified within the Household Survey. From the survey, the proportion of the catchment undertaking various leisure activities within Shrewsbury were as follows:

It is evident from the survey results, that Shrewsbury’s primary catchment is concentrated within the Shrewsbury Central East and Shrewsbury Central West survey zones. The strength of Telford’s leisure provision means that a high proportion of the resident population within Shrewsbury East visit that centre to undertake their leisure activities, most notably going to bingo (75%) and the cinema (41%).

From the Household Survey results, it would appear that the demand for commercial leisure activities generated by the catchment population is currently well served by existing facilities within Shrewsbury. Analysis of the results suggests that there is no ‘cause for concern’ with regard to significant leisure trips leaking from the catchment to competing centres elsewhere.

12. Future Leisure Development Requirements

White Young Green’s analysis has indicated that the provision of existing leisure facilities within Shrewsbury is strong and at present there are no significant gaps in commercial leisure provision. Whilst it is anticipated that there will be significant growth in demand for leisure activities over the plan period, White Young Green’s analysis suggests that the current provision of cinema screens and ten pin bowling alleys is more than sufficient to meet increased demands.

With regard to health clubs/facilities, White Young Green anticipate that further demand for such facilities will occur over the plan period and that there may be pressure to provide another large private member health and fitness centre to compete with Fitness First.

Although it is considered almost impossible to accurately forecast the future need for pubs, restaurants and nightclubs, it is anticipated that there will be significant demand focused upon the town centre for such uses as the evening economy and the ‘café culture’ develops within Shrewsbury. This need will be further ‘fuelled’ by the expansion of residential development within the town centre and planned improvements in cultural facilities, including the new theatre.

13. Future Opportunities to Accommodate the Need Identified

From White Young Green’s assessment it is evident that there is significant need for future additional retail development through to 2011. However, opportunities for major redevelopment within Shrewsbury Town Centre are extremely limited. Whilst the historic nature of the town centre contributes significantly to the overall attractiveness and built environment, it is an obvious constraint when seeking to accommodate additional retail and leisure floorspace, as well as meeting the ever increasing demands of modern retailers for larger units.

In this respect, White Young Green have identified only one opportunity which could potentially accommodate future requirements for additional floorspace and the provision of a department store. This development, which focuses on the area of land between Smithfield Road and Pride Hill including the Pride Hill Shopping Centre, the Darwin Shopping Centre and Riverside Mall, is an extremely complex opportunity but one that must be pursued further, as without this, the potential to accommodate significant additional floorspace within Shrewsbury could be lost.

If the Council adopt the ‘do nothing’ approach then there is a serious danger that Shrewsbury will experience a gradual decline in its role and function and will lose ground to its competitors. Consumers are extremely fickle and in this ever changing market no established town centre can afford to stand still.

Although there are no obvious solutions to provide additional floorspace in the short to medium term within the town centre, there are a number of important initiatives that will need to be put in place to maintain Shrewsbury’s vitality and viability whilst longer term aspirations are developed. These issues will primarily focus on environmental enhancements, exploring initiatives to increase pedestrian movements from the prime pitch to other important parts of the town centre and greater promotion of the centre’ current strengths, linked to its wider tourism potential.

14. Implications for the Development of Future Local Plan Policy

In summary, it is evident that whilst the adopted local plan reflects the aims and objectives set out in PPG6 revised, there will be a need for further refinement of existing policies to reflect the additional clarification that has been provided in several ministerial statements. In addition White Young Green recommend that a serious review of the policy, controlling non-retail uses in the primary and secondary frontage, is undertaken. This review will be fundamental if the town centre is to embrace the growth in the evening economy and provide the necessary support services that will enable tourists and shoppers to dwell for longer periods of time. As part of the future strategy, the Council may consider identifying a particular part of the town centre where the evening economy will be actively encouraged.

However, the biggest challenge as part of the review of the existing local plan will be to set out a clear and consistent strategy that outlines how the ‘needs’ identified within this study will be accommodated and where future retail and leisure development will be focused. If long term comprehensive redevelopment is to be supported within the town centre then the Council will have to carefully consider future applications for edge/out of centre developments that may prejudice this strategic approach. However, it must be noted that this study also demonstrates a significant need for ‘bulky goods’ facilities over the plan period which will need to be considered as part of the overall strategic approach adopted.